Arizona Mortgage Team

Arizona Mortgage Rates. Refinance FHA, VA and Jumbo Mortgage Loans.

  • Loan Programs
    • FHA Loans
      • FHA 203k Loan
      • FHA Streamline Refinance
      • FHA Kiddie Condo Loan
    • VA Loans
    • USDA Loans
    • HomePath Loans
    • Interest Only Mortgage Loans
    • Refinancing
    • Reverse Mortgages
      • Reverse Mortgage Quote
  • Insurance
    • Arizona Car Insurance
    • Arizona Homeowner Insurance
    • Arizona Life Insurance
    • Arizona Renters Insurance
  • Press
  • Blog

Case Shiller: Property Prices May Fall Another 45%

November 28, 2009

Predictions.

Maybe they will come true, maybe they wont – but here is one from a fairly credible source that says property values still have a ways – a long ways – to fall.

According to the guys at Lender Implode, the 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.

case shiller 45 decline

One insightful comment came from “John L” who appears to live right here in Phoenix:

The predictions pointed out in the article can be confirm by an analysis of the change from lax credit underwriting for home buyers starting in late 90’s, which created an undue stimulus on the demand for real estate, back to the traditional credit underwriting standards for home buyers.

Incomes have not risen for years. The amount of the mortgage a home purchaser is qualifies for is determined by their “documented” income. Home prices will have to decline to a level to match the buyers purchasing ability.

The more curious fact is the continued government intervention in the market for the benefit of the FED, FNMA, FHLMC, Wall Street firms and banks.

The use of below market interest rates, tax credits, grants to “non-profit” organizations for down payment assistance and in Arizona silent seconds (no interest, no payment, debt forgiven after 15 years) for 22% of the purchase price, have the effect for new home buyers of their overpaying for their homes and artificially increasing the value of real estate.

When the government’s money (our money, our children’s and grandchildren’s money) runs out, the undue stimulus and creative financing will finally be eliminated from the market leading to a sustainable lower value of real estate.

Will property values here in Phoenix rise or fall in 2010? I don’t pretend to know for sure – but if the Case Shiller model holds any weight, I wouldn’t bet the farm on them rising too much from their current levels anytime soon.

That said, the guys at Calculated Risk have an expanded analysis of this – not quite as nerve-wracking.

Filed Under: Buying a New Home in Arizona, Miscellaneous Fun, The Business of Mortgages Tagged With: Home Values

Recent Items

  • How Does a VA Streamline Work?
  • Can you Use a Mortgage Assumption after a Divorce?
  • What are the Major USDA Streamline Guidelines?
  • How is the USDA Monthly Guarantee Fee Calculated?
  • How to Purchase USDA Foreclosed Homes?

Latest News

  • How Does a VA Streamline Work?
  • Can you Use a Mortgage Assumption after a Divorce?
  • What are the Major USDA Streamline Guidelines?
  • How is the USDA Monthly Guarantee Fee Calculated?
  • How to Purchase USDA Foreclosed Homes?

Search

IMPORTANT MORTGAGE DISCLOSURES:

When inquiring about a mortgage on this site, this is not a mortgage application. Upon the completion of your inquiry, we will work hard to match you with a lender who may assist you with a mortgage application and provide mortgage product eligibility requirements for your individual situation.

Any mortgage product that a lender may offer you will carry fees or costs including closing costs, origination points, and/or refinancing fees. In many instances, fees or costs can amount to several thousand dollars and can be due upon the origination of the mortgage credit product.

When applying for a mortgage credit product, lenders will commonly require you to provide a valid social security number and submit to a credit check . Consumers who do not have the minimum acceptable credit required by the lender are unlikely to be approved for mortgage refinancing.

Minimum credit ratings may vary according to lender and mortgage product. In the event that you do not qualify for a credit rating based on the required minimum credit rating, a lender may or may not introduce you to a credit counseling service or credit improvement company who may or may not be able to assist you with improving your credit for a fee.

Copyright © Mortgage.info is not a government agency or a lender. Not affiliated with HUD, FHA, VA, FNMA or GNMA. We work hard to match you with local lenders for the mortgage you inquire about. This is not an offer to lend and we are not affiliated with your current mortgage servicer.

Contact Us | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

Buy Mortgage Leads

Mortgage.info

NMLS ID #1237615 | AZMB #0928735

8123 South Interport Blvd. Suite A, Englewood, CO 80112

CLICK TO SEE TODAY'S RATES

Contact Us